Wednesday, October 5, 2016
LA County San Andreas Fault Earthquake Imminent?
200 small earthquakes hit Bombay Bay in the Salton Sea this week. This area is at the southern tip of the San Andreas Fault. There has not been a large earthquake here since 1680, or 330 years ago according to scientists who spoke to the LA Times. According to the LA Times and U.S. Geological Survey, as of Tuesday, the chances of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake being triggered on the southern San Andreas Fault over the next seven days were as high as 1 in 100 and as low as 1 in 3,000. Without the swarm, the average chance for such an earthquake striking on any given week is 1 in 6,000. The earthquakes hit in a sparsely populated area, less than four miles from Bombay Beach in the Sonoran Desert. Historically just 12 hours after a 6.3 earthquake hit south of the Salton Sea in 1987, an even larger temblor, a 6.6, ruptured six miles away. Seismologists say the could be the first domino off on the San Andreas fault, unzipping the fault from Imperial County through Los Angeles County, spreading devastating shaking waves throughout the southern half of California in a monster 7.8 earthquake. Their ShakeOut simulation says it’s possible that hundreds of brick and concrete buildings could fall, and even a few fairly new high-rise steel buildings. The death toll could climb to 1,800 people, and such an earthquake could cause 50,000 injuries and $200 billion in damage. Let’s hope this doesn’t occur, but the next several days will tell the tale or no tale at all.