Many of China’s Elderly are looking to Retire and Invest Abroad

China is facing a looming demographic crisis due to its rapidly aging society according to a UN Study. There soon will be an estimated 360 million Chinese over the age of 60 in 2030. That is 25% of the population, which is also larger than the entire US population. China may not have the resources to care for a large retired population. Their economy has slowed, and affluent Chinese are increasingly investing in retirement properties overseas both for their parents and their own golden years. They have benefited from a property boom at home and they would like to retire somewhere safe, environmentally clean, safe and comfortable. The yuan’s value has decline against the dollar, so they have been pouring money into foreign investment in Europe and the US. Overall Chinese investment in foreign commercial and residential real estate jumped from $5.6 billion in 2012 to $34.4 billion last year, according to recent studies. A recent survey also indicated Chinese who had either emigrated or were considering emigrating, of those 60% said they would buy an overseas property in the next three years, with the US, UK, Canada and Australia as the top destinations. More than half indicated they were concerned about the continuing depreciation of the yuan. Outbound tourism has shot up 200% in 2015 from 2014. Retirees expect to live full lives in their golden years and the west appears to be their desire destination. Chinese also like living with people of their own culture just like others. California has one of the largest Chinese populations in the US. Many also look to vacant land as an investment vehicle, since there is no maintenance on land parcels. They can sell the property later for a profit and then buy a home in California. The investment becomes a safe haven from the yuan and home government. Also what make Antelope Valley a good prospect is the new medical facilities. Retirees like access to safe state of the art medical care. The desert valley may fit the bill. Also China has dense cities with crowded apartments. Antelope Valley and many parts of California are the opposite of that. Additionally, a foreign investment benefits their children and grandchildren. In China property ownership is a leasehold and not fee simple like the US. A leasehold maybe only 70 years in China, so you can’t will the estate to your children which is so common in the US. There are still cultural barriers to Chinese foreign investment, but some of the positives may outweigh the negatives. An investment can be turned into cash when appropriate.

Selling Homes Has been Tough for the Builder, But they have a New Buyers from Abroad

CNBC reported "This is a tough market condition. We have seen the market recover since the downturn, but the recovery has been slow, steady and in a pretty tight band," said Stuart Miller, CEO of Miami-based Lennar. He said land costs and entitlement costs are getting too high. Although, the demand for an entry level home is at the highest. This area is mortgage constrained, since first time buyers can’t get a mortgage easily. The builders like Lennar are now building multiple housing development apartments and renting them. They are also building rental communities. They build the home and rent out each home in the entire community. DR Horton makes a starter home brand called “Express Homes”, which are tailored for the first time home buyer. There is a new buyer in the US and it is the Chinese. They are the primary factor driving up investments in the US. According to a CNBC report from Rosen Consulting Group the Chinese direct investment in the US commercial real estate sector and residential sales could hit $218 Billion in the next four years. Chinese foreign direct investment into the U.S. totaled about $22.3 billion in 2015, an increase from roughly $18.1 billion in the prior year, according to the report. The increase is an average of 54 Billion a year. According the CNBC reporting Chinese owners acquired at least $8.5 billion in commercial property and at least $28.6 billion in residential property in 2015. Looking to 2025, the report projected that commercial acquisitions could hit $20 billion by then and residential buying could reach $50 billion. The reason for all this new investment increase is that larger firms in China including insurance firms have not invested in the US. This large Chinese investment is based upon the Chinese government currency value, and economic uncertainty in China. The Chinese government is imposing controls on how much money can leave China, but the Chinese are still getting their money out into US Real Estate Investment. The currency devaluation issue and the rules on long term real estate investment in a communist country has been the impetus for capital to flee. In China a person only has a lease-hold on property for say 70 to 100 years, so you can not pass on real estate to heirs. This is not an issue in the US. Expect greater Chinese investment in real estate, and home builders to build apartments instead of entry level homes.

Chinese Buyers are Buying Real Estate Across American and Beyond

The New York Times recently reported that Chinese buyers have been buying luxury high end apartments in London wealthier neighborhoods in Vancouver Canada and luxury condos in New York City and larger home in the Silicon Valley. These buyers are buying higher end properties in major cities which doesn’t affect the overall real estate market, but it does in more dense populated areas like New York and San Francisco. This pushes residences in these cities to pay more for living space and pushes up rent. These Chinese purchases make up a small amount of the overall sales in the United States. This is a disproportion of their money in high end properties according to the NT Times. They have bought one in every fourteen homes in the $1million plus range in New York. They are also buying land in the Antelope Valley. There are real estate agencies and marketing firms promoting fee simple properties in the Antelope Valley. Land has no maintenance needs so the buyer can sit and wait and just pay the property taxes. Larger condo’s need maintenance, HOA fees and security. The Chinese government doesn’t allow long term ownership of property in China. It is usually for a period of years, so property can’t be passed on to children. Additionally, in China land has to be development. This is partly why there are ghost cities in China, since the land was bought but requires development in a period of time in order to retain the property. This is why land within the path of growth that can be pass onto offspring is so enticing. The Chinese stock market and government cannot be trusted to provide security in an investment. This new overseas investment is helping property values in Lancaster and Palmdale especially closer in property to development.