Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Tips on Buying California Investment Property, Undeveloped or Pre-Developed Land?

Generally there is only developed land which has some or full development on the parcel, or undeveloped land which would be considered just raw land with limited or no access but with future potential development. Much of the available raw land in the US is agricultural land or just vacant unused land. There is also an in between designation we identify as pre-developed land. The main distinction between Un and Pre developed land is the proximity to current development and the zoning of the parcel, but both are Land Banking options. Undeveloped and Pre-developed land offers the potential of both risk and reward whether it is zoned rural residential agricultural land, or typically better zoned pre-developed land which could be zoned urban residential, industrial or even commercial land use. Undeveloped land is generally less expensive to purchase than pre or developed land. An abundance of undeveloped land in Los Angeles County is designated agricultural use as large amounts of land is needed for farming, but usually this land type also allows limited rural residential uses. Don’t be afraid of the agricultural zoning as much of current developed land was previously agricultural land. Many of today’s farmers are now real estate investors as urban growth has encroached and absorbed their land.

Many parts of the City of Palmdale and Lancaster Ca. include vacant land parcels within the city limits or just outside, but at a distance from development. Much of this pre-developed land is rural residential, industrial (light or heavy) and a lot of multi-family residential zoning. The lowest price per acre would be the rural residential where an owner would be allowed to build one home per 2.5 acres. This type of land is cheaper acreage but high reward as the zoning can change to a more favorable zoning over time as city planning designates. The higher price per acre available vacant parcels would be multi-residential R-7000 or R-10,000 allowing one dwelling per 7000 or 10,000 square feet. You would have to pay a much higher price for this type of parcel zoning, but the return on investment can be in the thousands of percentages since housing developers will pay top dollar for needed property if you held the parcel longer term.

You can look at buying either undeveloped or pre-develop land based on your capital and time horizon. A low capital investment and longer time horizon which may be typical for a 401k, or IRA type of investment would best fit an undeveloped parcel. For example an investor could purchased a 10 acre parcel in LA County for $3000/acre of rural residential and agricultural land zoned and hold it for fifteen to twenty years. It is an ideal buy and hold opportunity where you should target a 200% return in twenty years or less. This would be a buy it and don’t worry about it investment. Undeveloped land should have the higher percentage increase of the three examples of land over time as it is easier to double you money on a $3000/acre investment than a $50,000 per acre investment.

Now with pre-developed land we have a high profit potential and a lower risk property with usually a higher capital investment and shorter time horizon target. Potentially it has all of the profit potential built in. Ideally, pre-developed land could have a better return on investment based on its zoning. Pre-developed land would be land directly in the path of growth with targeted zoning and in or near current city limits. A past example of pre-developed land would be the San Fernando Valley where decades ago one would pay $10,000 per acre for a vacant land parcel just outside current development. Today that type of parcel would be hundreds of thousands of dollars per acre over several decades. But you don’t have to sell the parcel after holding for decades as the parcel should be profitable in less than ten years. We look at pre-developed land as a more favorable profit potential in a shorter time frame as it is the land that has been allocated for near term future development for the cities growth. The urban development alone will drive the price increase of this type of property.

We have both types of properties in our inventory, which fit undeveloped and pre-develop scenarios in Northern Los Angeles County cities of Palmdale and Lancaster Ca.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Why Los Angeles County Undeveloped Land is a Better Investment Vehicle Than the Stock Market

The Stock Market in 2010 has been rising, but the best long term secure investment may not be stocks in 2011. We feel land in general is a better long term investment than stocks. Stocks can be volatile and some stocks rise while others may go sideways or down. Most need an advisor to guide them in today’s equity markets, and with the global debt crisis their future value can be murky. Many analysts say the buy and hold strategy may be dead as short term trading is prominent in today’s stock markets. Land Banking and long and short term land investment has shown to be a more secure, patient, low risk and lucrative means for buy and hold investors. Investors can buy and forget about their investment for three to ten years as it grows. We focus on Los Angeles County land and undeveloped land in the Antelope Valley for several reasons. Mainly, the population growth in the county has increased from 4.1 million in 1950 to 9.6 million as of 1998. The US Census has projected that the population will increase to 12 million by 2025. The real estate prices have increased with this growth over the decades, but have recently returned to earth. In addition, land prices have also deflated with the real estate bubble. But real estate prices and land prices have potentially hit the bottom of the trough in the price curve. It is similar to buying stocks after a major sell off, since higher prices are most likely in the future. Land is at or near its bottom in this area as growth in the solar and wind industries has increased in the Antelope Valley recently. Solar and Wind Energy companies require large swaths of land for their facilities leaving less undeveloped land for homes. Home development is not on the increase currently, but once the population demands housing again then land prices will increase accordingly. Buying land now, especially pre-developed land at these lower prices has the potential to produce a much better return and lower risk investment then the stock market has in the past decade.

The past ten years the stock market has been referred to as the lost decade, since the market is trading right where it was nine years ago. Stocks, long touted as the best investment for the long term, have been one of the worst investments over the past nine years, and trounced even by lowly treasury bonds according to the WSJ(Aug. 2010). In an article from LandThink.com, Professor Jeremy Siegel of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School indicated that stocks showed an average gain of seven percent a year when the data are controlled for inflation. This average works when looking at many stocks over many years. Some individual stocks may have increased more, but adjusted for inflation, a dollar invested in the S&P 500 in April 1999 produced no gain at the end of March 2008. The performance of big U.S. stocks amounts to an average annual rise of 1.3 percent during the past decade after dividends and inflation are counted in. (E.S. Browning, “Stocks Tarnished By ‘Lost Decade,’” Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2008.)

Yet, farm value in current dollars averaged $2,160 per acre nationwide on January 1, 2007, up from $974 in 1998, a 13.5 percent average annual gain according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Cropland during that period rose from $1,340 to $2,700; pasture rose from $489 to $1,160 (source Landthink.com)

An individual investor has to continually watch the stock market to ensure gains, or trust a financial planner to provide advice and expertise on the best stock investment. But undeveloped land is a much easier investment as it doesn’t require a financial advisor, maintenance, or exhaustive company research. Land is not exposed to flash crashes, insider trading, corporate public relation issues, or even Wikileaks. Land values slowly increase or decrease over time, so it is an ideal long term investment to literally bank on the future. It is the ideal buy and wait investment, so buying now at lower current prices may be your best retirement vehicle. Individuals simply can not make enough to retire by placing money in savings, or CD’s. You need to invest for your retirement, and we believe longer term land investment can provide you a secure future.

VacantLandDeals.com was formed to help investors find land investment opportunities at the low end of the market, and in the path of growth

Sunday, December 19, 2010

AV Solar Ranch One Project gets Unanimous Approval against Northrop Grumman's Protest

L.A. County supervisors refuse to put the brakes on the 230-megawatt project despite the military contractor's contention that it would interfere with its radar testing operations.
The Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors denied a request from Northrop Grumman Corp. to delay final approval of a major solar project in the Antelope Valley near the military contractor's facility for testing radar evading stealth aircraft.
On a voice vote, supervisors rejected Northrop's appeal Tuesday, opting to let plans for the 2,100-acre complex of photovoltaic solar panels proceed. Final approval was expected Dec. 7, 2010.
Grumman argued that the project would "adversely impact the military mission" of the sensitive, 1970s-era testing center, just south of the Tehachapi Mountains in Kern County.
Antonovich noted that the project, AV Solar Ranch One, already has received a conditional use permit from the county regional planning commission.
The renewable energy developer, First Solar Inc. of Tempe, Ariz., has solid backing from area business, civic and government leaders, including Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and the mayors of Lancaster and Palmdale.
The 230-megawatt project would provide 400 construction jobs in an economically depressed part of the county, said Frank De Rosa, a senior vice president. Once completed in 2013, it would generate enough electricity to power 75,000 homes.
A solar energy generating plant is "the highest and best use for this particular property," said Mel Layne, president of the Greater Antelope Valley Economic Alliance.

The Daily News wire also reported on the story stating that a representative from Northrop Grumman said the 10 foot high photovoltaic panels would interfere with the contractor's testing of stealth aircraft. Northrop tests the B-2 bomber in the high desert and manages "several fully classified programs" aimed at creating the "next generation of stealth aircraft" in Palmdale, which would be adversely affected, said Leonard Figueroa, a director of engineering for Northrop. He said the projects at risk are secret and could not be publicly discussed.
The county's Regional Planning Commission approved the project on Sept. 15. Attorneys for Northrop Grumman did not file documents in objection until Friday. Attorneys for Northrop from Sheppard Mullin Richter and Hampton "just dropped off a stack of materials Friday afternoon," said Supervisor Michael Antonovich, adding that he found the last-minute timing "unprofessional."
Jack Rubens of Sheppard Mullin said experts needed time to review the Environmental Impact Report for the project, which they didn't receive
"The goal is to allow this project and others to go forward," said Rubens. But his client sought to delay the project until they could work out alternatives with the county.
Antonovich said he understood that the company was positioning itself to ask for payments from the county to mitigate the cost of making operational changes. The supervisor noted that public hearings were held in June and September and detailed the long history of the permitting process more than once during the discussion, trying to refute Rubens' allegation that the defense contractor learned of the project only after it was approved.
The supervisor added that he had no advance warning of Northrop's decision last January to move its headquarters and 300 to 360 jobs to northern Virginia. He learned of the move on the morning of the company's announcement to the press, he said.
The affected Northrop facility "directly supports programs employing 15,000 people in Los Angeles County," but only 15 employees work at the site, according to Figueroa.
The board's vote to allow First Solar Inc. to proceed with the project was unanimous.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Los Angeles County Water Lawsuit and the Impact to the Land Investor

Superior Court Judge Jack Komar handed down his ruling in 2008 during the second phase of the Antelope Valley groundwater adjudication lawsuit. His ruling was that the entire Antelope Valley aquifer has” hydrologic connectivity”, and thus the entire aquifers are connected. This essentially will make it easier for the court to decide how much water can be removed annually. Once it actually decides. This lawsuit began in 1999 where Diamond Farming filed suit against Lancaster and Palmdale water entities over water rights.
It now involves hundreds in a class action lawsuit (case #1-05-CV-049053), and essentially all Antelope Valley property owners, and residents wishing to remove water from the aquifer.

According to the US Geological Survey the aquifers in Antelope Valley are recharged primarily by infiltration of stream flow that originates in the mountainous areas that surround the valley. The USGA estimated that from 1915 to 1950 average annual precipitation on the valley floor has been less than 10 inches, and runoff is minor. The maximum rate of withdrawal of about 400,000 acre feet per year was about 10 times the estimated annual recharge to the basin. An acre foot is about 325,850 gallons, or approximately the amount of water it takes to cover a football field to the depth of one foot. Water removed from storage in the aquifers has been a major part of the ground water withdrawals, and severe water level declines have resulted over the years. By about 1950, studies showed that ground-water withdrawals in the valley were greatly in excess of natural recharge and withdrawals were curtailed. Los Angeles County acquires water from numerous methods now.

Data indicates there is an abundant water supply in the valley. The primary sources of water are groundwater, surface water, and imported surface water while groundwater has been the primary source of water in the area. Prior to 1972, it provided more than 90 percent of the total water supply; after 1972, it provided between 50 and 90 percent. Groundwater is stored in the Antelope Valley Groundwater Basin and sources indicate it has an estimated capacity of 68 million acre-feet with a recharge rate of 31,200 to 80,400 acre feet per year. The primary source of surface water is the Littlerock Reservoir with a capacity of 3,500 acre feet. The imported surface water arrives from the State Water Project (also known as the California Aqueduct). Under the State Water Project the Antelope Valley-East Kern Water Agency is contracted to deliver 160,000 acre-feet per year to the Antelope Valley.

Los Angeles County has needed more and more water over the decades. William Mulholland found the water the growing city needed in the Owens Valley and constructed the aqueduct, but even more water has been demanded. According to Aquafornia’s website the Colorado River Aqueduct brings water from the Colorado River to Southern California for urban uses, and the Imperial Irrigation District operates the Imperial Dam and All American Canal, which supplies water for irrigation in the Imperial Valley. The State Water Project brings water from the San Francisco Bay Delta and delivers it to farmers in the Central Valley, as well as providing water for urban uses in Southern California. Los Angeles County has been able to grow via these water aqueducts, and Lancaster and Palmdale can benefit in their future growth also.

The Antelope Valley groundwater adjudication lawsuit will primarily impact farming and property owners on unincorporated Los Angeles County land, where water wells are the norm. The court outcome is unknown, but the leaning appears to be limited water extraction from the aquifer being more likely. Would that mean a meter on your well, farming limits, and reduced custom home development, possibly? This can also have an impact on the value of County land, where little to no water means lower prices. As Lancaster and Palmdale grow then these cities will need to annex more county land and thus providing access to city water. Better valued land investment would be land in or near the current city limits until this lawsuit is settled.

The last date for a court hearing was November 11th and the topic was (3) Motion by New Anaverde to Substitute Parties and Permit Filing and Service of Supplemental Cross-Complaint; (4) Notice of Related Case filed by Tejon Ranch Corp (Burrows v. Tejon Ranch Corp, Los Angeles County Superior Court, Case No. MC 021281), this is an issue the land investors need to be aware of and we will keep you informed here.

Saturday, November 6, 2010

California High Speed Rail to Break Ground in Central Valley in 2011 and Eventually Tracking a Path to Palmdale, Ca. But, Is It a Train to Nowhere?

The Federal Government seems to be forcing the hand of The California High Speed Rail Authority. Recently, the Feds provided $715 million toward the rail system. The CalHighSpeed Rail Authority press release this week stated that the Federal Railroad Administration forwarded their requirement that the full amount of the $4.3 billion be allocated to infrastructure investment for the proposed system in California’s Central Valley. These funds have to be directed to the rail lines from Merced to Fresno or Fresno to Bakersfield. These funds were part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, and California has received more funds of this type then any other State.

We wonder if this is choreographed or a knee jerk political reaction by the Obama Administration to reward California for staying in the Democrats Camp. GOP elected Rep. Mica trashed the idea of having the federal government continuing to fund a Tampa to Orlando high speed rail line, as he spoke to the Associated Press this week “I am a strong advocate of high-speed rail, but it has to be where it makes sense,” Mica said. “The administration squandered the money, giving it to dozens and dozens of projects that were marginal at best to spend on slow-speed trains to nowhere. The Republicans and the Obama Administration differ in how to pay for fast trains as a Republican Congress wants the rail transportation system to be self supporting, but the Obama Administration expects states like Ohio and Wisconsin to absorb operating losses for their rail systems. California lacks the funds to absorb losses. The newly elected Governor of Ohio John Kasich said via news reports that “the train is dead” He was referring to the Ohio slow passenger train from Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland. Also, The Wisconsin Republican Governor Elect Scott Walker promised to cancel the Wisconsin High Speed rail (Milwaukee to Madison). BizTimes Daily reported this week that the Wisconsin Dept. of Transportation told contractors to halt work on the $810 million project.

The California High-Speed Rail Authority CEO Roelof van Ark said in their press release
“The Central Valley is indeed key to creating the core of a true high-speed rail system in California, as that is where our trains will travel truly high speeds of 220 miles per hour,” van Ark said. “But no matter where we start building, the goal remains the same: a statewide high-speed rail system up and running in 2020 connecting the Bay Area with the metropolitan area of Los Angeles and Anaheim, that creates thousands of jobs, improves air quality, and provides us all with a cheaper, faster and more convenient way to travel.”

The Mercury News indicated that the agency says it could build just half of the 50-mile track from San Francisco to San Jose section with the funds available while they can build the entire 60 miles Merced to Fresno corridor or 113-mile Fresno to Bakersfield span. In Southern California, the authority thinks it could build two thirds of the 30 mile stretch. "We have to build a system that is going to be operable as soon as possible and that means building many miles of track that are connected to each other," van Ark said.
But a Central Valley segment will have no operational significance van Ark said major population centers need to be linked and the agency will not bother starting service there.
"We will not have trains when we build this first segment," he said. CalHighSpeedRail Authority release also indicated that they will discuss target constructions locations and other business in their next meeting in December.

We have tempered our celebration since at first glance this would be a track to nowhere, with only rails, bridges, with empty stations, and no train or passengers. This is not a proposal that a Republican influenced Congress would approve as it will not pay for itself. Would Governor Elect Brown call this living within our means? Would the Chinese Banks cover the additional funds needed?

A possible land investment opportunity could be buying land ahead of the rails especially near Fresno, Ca. as that city is certain to be on the trains map. We will keep track of this news and events as it progresses.

Monday, November 1, 2010

California Lands the Worlds Largest Solar Project in Ivanpah, San Bernardino County

Ground is to be broken for a massive solar thermal plant in California’s Mojave Desert this week. It is called the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System. The Estimated cost is two billion and the first to be built on Federal Land (Bureau of Land Management). It has passed a number of environmental hurdles, but it does impose on the desert tortoise habitat. The company operating the system BrightSource Energy indicated via press reports that they will assist in the relocation of the tortoise.
This project is truly massive as it encompasses about 3,600 acres (about 1,458 hectares) and it will involve 346,000 mirrors, each about the size of a billboard. The mirrors project the suns rays toward a 460 foot tower. The heat turns the fluid in the tower into steam which generates electricity. Construction begins next week and it is expected to be completed by 2013 according to the Los Angeles Times. It should produce 370 megawatts which can supply 140,000 homes with the energy being furnished to Southern California Edison and PG&E. There is actually a rush to begin this project and several other solar projects by the end of 2010 as a federal financing program will cover up to 30 percent of the construction cost, but it must begin by the end of the year news reports indicated. According to BrightSource Energy’s website there will be additional new financing from NRG Energy of $300 million which secures NRG as the largest ownership stake in the project. Both companies with Bechtel Corp will work together on construction, equity, ownership and operation.

Ivanpah is approximately fifty miles northwest of Needles, Ca and five miles west of the Nevada border in San Bernardino County. It is just off Hwy 15 and 164. There will be approximately one thousand construction workers on the project, which will be set to begin this winter season, as summer temperatures in Ivanpah can be 110 degrees on average.
There isn’t a town in the area as this location is just open desert land with the only current signs of civilization being a rail road and highway. The opportunity in the immediate future maybe to build a general store to supply the new workers as there isn’t any real development in this area now.

Today Southern California’s Mojave Desert has two of the world’s largest Green Energy projects with the Mega Wind project (Alta Wind Energy Center) in Tehachapi and now Ivanpah. Both of these locations were vacant unused and undeveloped land parcels, so the opportunities for land investors are in this Antelope Valley region. Profitable land investment opportunities are growing in this area and we will continue to inform you here as projections progress.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Virgin Galactic First Manned Free Flight Debuts in Kern Counties Mojave Air and Spaceport

The first free flight of the SpaceShipTwo (VSS Enterprise) craft began this week after a series of captive carry flights. The captive carry flights are flights where SpaceShipTwo is attached to its mother ship WhiteKnightTwo (aka:Eve after Sir Richard Branson’s mother) which took place earlier this year in March. The free flight confirmed that the VSS Enterprise’s flight systems were all functioning correctly. News reports quote the pilot Peter Siebold saying “That was a real joy to fly,” “especially when one considers the fact that the vehicle has been designed not only to be a Mach 3.5 spaceship capable of going into space but also one of the worlds highest altitude gliders.” Virgin Galactic plans to enter into commercial operations once all testing is complete. The craft will be taken up to a high altitude by a conventional plane then released at which point, a rocket booster will propel the craft out of the atmosphere. Its reentry would be similar to NASA’s Space Shuttle with a controlled glide to a predefined landing point

It took place in California's Mojave Desert at the Mojave Air and Space Port in the center of Mojave, Ca. between Hwy 14 and Hwy 58 and just north of Edward Airforce Base in Kern County. Flight testing activities have been centered in Mojave since the early 1970s as there is limited population. In addition, being near Edwards Airforce base restricted airspace is ideal for testing. It is also been an emergency landing site for the Space Shuttle, and a famous moth ball fleet site of unused commercial planes covering the horizon. The FAA has given the airport spaceport status through 2014. It has recently gained fame as a Spaceport with Virgin Galactic but other private space companies like XCOR Aerospace a rocket engine and spaceflight development company, Orbital a satellite launch and manufacturer, Masten Space Systems an aerospace startup company, and Interorbital Systems which is working on a line of launch vehicles aimed at winning the Google Lunar X Prize all call Mojave their home. The area has a sparse population but very high tech ambitions. This adds to Antelope Valley’s a reputation for flight as Palmdale, Ca Plant 42 was the original home of the B-2 Stealth Bomber.

Virgin Galactic $450 million project will eventually see six commercial vessels shuttling into space as Virgin Galactic has lined up some 370 customer deposits totaling some $50 million for what it will be the world’s first commercial passenger space flight operation. Each passenger gets the same seating position with two large windows, one side window and one overhead, so that, if you don't want to float free in space, and you'd rather just remain in your seat, you still get a great chance to see the view.

Lancaster, Palmdale and Mojave Ca. continue to promote high tech opportunities with homegrown technologies that can’t be outsourced. The growth in Solar, Wind, Aerospace and Space technology provide long term professional jobs within a commuting proximity to Greater Los Angeles. These are the types of signs of an expanding economy, and an investment opportunity to be ahead of the curve. Landbanking is based on buying and holding undeveloped land for the near and long term. Low priced land is available today in 2010 for a good potential profit in five to ten years.