California High-Speed Rail Authority Making Its Case in Developing the Route

The high speed rail authority is make a case for the rail system based on population projections of an increase in 12 million new inhabitants in the State by 2040. They propose that the rail system will be in place from San Francisco to Los Angeles by 2029. They have only started construction on the first 29 miles of the system began in January, and the will be building their first river crossing bridge over the Fresno River soon. An AV Press article stated from an event that the alignments for the two portions of the system going through the Antelope Valley Have not been determined. They do have a plan from Bakersfield over the Tehachapi Mountains, and from there into the northern end of Lancaster still needs to be determined. They did indicate they wanted to avoid the wind turbines and any mining so at least that is a hint. They said they will run along Sierra Highway, which is where the existing railroad track is located. According to the AVPress article: There are four major routes, plus a couple of sub-routes, being looked at between Palmdale and Burbank. The original proposals paralleled the Antelope Valley Freeway (Hwy 14) between Acton and Santa Clarita, but new alternatives include underground routes proposed to tunnel through the San Gabriel Mountains with the aim of avoiding opponents in the Acton area and the Santa Clarita Valley. And then there is the cost which is estimated to be $68 Billion. The rail authority’s case against this cost is that it will cost $158 Billion if they created new highways, expanding airports, and made new roads. So $68 Billion sounds like a bargain. It maybe a tough sell either way as the costs to do nothing will likely be congestion. If you own land along Sierra Hwy at some point you may get an offer letter, but it still maybe decades away as we don’t see a system in place by 2029 from SF to LA.

California High Speed Rail to Break Ground in Central Valley in 2011 and Eventually Tracking a Path to Palmdale, Ca. But, Is It a Train to Nowhere?

The Federal Government seems to be forcing the hand of The California High Speed Rail Authority. Recently, the Feds provided $715 million toward the rail system. The CalHighSpeed Rail Authority press release this week stated that the Federal Railroad Administration forwarded their requirement that the full amount of the $4.3 billion be allocated to infrastructure investment for the proposed system in California’s Central Valley. These funds have to be directed to the rail lines from Merced to Fresno or Fresno to Bakersfield. These funds were part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, and California has received more funds of this type then any other State.

We wonder if this is choreographed or a knee jerk political reaction by the Obama Administration to reward California for staying in the Democrats Camp. GOP elected Rep. Mica trashed the idea of having the federal government continuing to fund a Tampa to Orlando high speed rail line, as he spoke to the Associated Press this week “I am a strong advocate of high-speed rail, but it has to be where it makes sense,” Mica said. “The administration squandered the money, giving it to dozens and dozens of projects that were marginal at best to spend on slow-speed trains to nowhere. The Republicans and the Obama Administration differ in how to pay for fast trains as a Republican Congress wants the rail transportation system to be self supporting, but the Obama Administration expects states like Ohio and Wisconsin to absorb operating losses for their rail systems. California lacks the funds to absorb losses. The newly elected Governor of Ohio John Kasich said via news reports that “the train is dead” He was referring to the Ohio slow passenger train from Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland. Also, The Wisconsin Republican Governor Elect Scott Walker promised to cancel the Wisconsin High Speed rail (Milwaukee to Madison). BizTimes Daily reported this week that the Wisconsin Dept. of Transportation told contractors to halt work on the $810 million project.

The California High-Speed Rail Authority CEO Roelof van Ark said in their press release
“The Central Valley is indeed key to creating the core of a true high-speed rail system in California, as that is where our trains will travel truly high speeds of 220 miles per hour,” van Ark said. “But no matter where we start building, the goal remains the same: a statewide high-speed rail system up and running in 2020 connecting the Bay Area with the metropolitan area of Los Angeles and Anaheim, that creates thousands of jobs, improves air quality, and provides us all with a cheaper, faster and more convenient way to travel.”

The Mercury News indicated that the agency says it could build just half of the 50-mile track from San Francisco to San Jose section with the funds available while they can build the entire 60 miles Merced to Fresno corridor or 113-mile Fresno to Bakersfield span. In Southern California, the authority thinks it could build two thirds of the 30 mile stretch. "We have to build a system that is going to be operable as soon as possible and that means building many miles of track that are connected to each other," van Ark said.
But a Central Valley segment will have no operational significance van Ark said major population centers need to be linked and the agency will not bother starting service there.
"We will not have trains when we build this first segment," he said. CalHighSpeedRail Authority release also indicated that they will discuss target constructions locations and other business in their next meeting in December.

We have tempered our celebration since at first glance this would be a track to nowhere, with only rails, bridges, with empty stations, and no train or passengers. This is not a proposal that a Republican influenced Congress would approve as it will not pay for itself. Would Governor Elect Brown call this living within our means? Would the Chinese Banks cover the additional funds needed?

A possible land investment opportunity could be buying land ahead of the rails especially near Fresno, Ca. as that city is certain to be on the trains map. We will keep track of this news and events as it progresses.

Is the California High-Speed Rail Coming Around the Corner?

AP Business news reported on Governor Swarzenegger’s trip to China promoting California products and tourism, but a main point on this overseas trip is to investigate high-speed rail technology and financing. The New York Times also reported in early April of this year about China negotiations with Sacramento to use their high speed rail technology to build the rail-line from Sacramento ultimately to San Diego. The proposed rail would initially be built from Los Angeles to Anaheim and San Francisco to San Jose and then expand from their (see cahighspeedrail.ca.gov). A future rail stop will also be in Palmdale Ca. In the AP News article the Governor was to travel from Shanghai to Nanjing using China’s speed train. Currently China has the world’s longest high-speed rail network spanning 4300 miles, and can run up to 220 miles per hour.

The Governor is also planning stops in Japan and South Korea to experience their high speed rail systems as they are also suitors to build the California Rail System. Interesting though South Korea and China learned the technology from France and Germany which have also presented proposals to Sacramento along with Italy and Spain. The Europeans are skeptical of Chinese technology, since its European grown, so there maybe some licensing issues. There may also be labor issues as Chinese labor laws do not favor the laborer. Yet, the Chinese have preliminarily agreed to abide by all US labor laws. The NY Times indicates the cooperation agreement would entail eighty percent of the components to come from American suppliers and assemble to be done in the US. A potential site would be the previous auto plant in Fremont Ca. thereby keeping most of the jobs in the State. The largest obstacle may be financing as the project is expected to cost $46 billion, but Chinese Banks may also be the solution. Up to $8 billion has already been pledged by the Federal Government as part of the Recovery Act. The Chinese have offered to also help further finance the project. Can the US afford such a large contribution in technology and financing from a foreign power? Can the State afford not to with 12 % unemployment? Would travelers actually take the train? There are many real issues that can derail this project, yet numerous governments are also fully behind it.

Many investors in Lancaster and Palmdale have been looking for signs of growth, so the potential for a rail line with the expansion of Solar and Wind technology in the Valley does show current and future expansion. The State Department of Finance is also expecting population growth from 2010-2015 to increase by 2 million and potentially an additional 18 million by 2040 with Southern California getting most of this growth. There looks to be speculative land opportunities still on the horizon, and Antelope Valley looks to benefit.

Biden says California is Prime Target for High Speed Rail Project

Although California is in a budget crisis, Vice President Joe Biden said that the state's high-speed rail project is well positioned to compete for a large share of the $8 billion that the Obama administration set aside in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act for rail lines.

The planned high-speed rail system would commute passengers between Los Angeles and San Francisco in 2 hours and 40 minutes. The train would stop in Palmdale, Ca as a major stop, and it would be a major boost for the local economy, making access to the Antelope Valley even easier. California voters approved $9 billion in bonds for the project in the recent November election. The state hopes federal funding and the private sector will complete the expected $34 billion estimated budget, which is only the first phase, which would connect San Francisco to Anaheim. The second phase would further connect a total 800 miles from Sacramento to San Diego traveling primarily down the center of the State via Fresno and Bakersfield. Construction between Anaheim and San Francisco would take at least a decade, according to planners.

Reports indicate that the portion that initially applies to the Recovery Act criteria for high-speed rail would be the rail line between San Francisco to San Jose and Los Angeles to Anaheim. The administration is looking for “shovel ready” opportunities which entail having contracts awarded by 2012 and work completed by 2017.

The potential real estate impact for the Antelope Valley is years away, but it bodes well for towns just outside of major metropolitan areas. There will be vacant land opportunities up and down the State, and this is another example for buying land within the path of growth, and getting there before development creates the greatest percentage of growth. We will see how this all transpires, but the focus of California and the current administration is mass transit and near term employment opportunities.