Is the Cal High Speed Rail Dead?

Is it one man one vote? Or One Governor one vote. Tuesday Governor Newsom says he will not push to build the Cal High Speed Rail as his mentor Jerry Brown wished for. He also only wants one water tunnel under the San Joaquin River Delta and not two. News reports quoted the novice Governor “There simply isn’t a path to get from Sacramento to San Diego, let alone from San Francisco to L.A.,” Newsom told a joint session of the Legislature. “I wish there were.” He said the current project would “cost too much and, respectfully, take too long.” The current link between Merced and Bakersfield would continue as planned and to Newsom it would act as a model. He pushed back on the “train to nowhere”, but many would agree otherwise. The voters approve a $10 Billion bond in 2008, but the current link has far exceeded that number. What does this do to the New Green Deal or Dream? Well without planes according to their plan than we only have high speed rail, but not in California which would be a green dream showcase. If you are a land speculator and you bought land in the hopes it would pay out later. Well later just got much more out their. Building large projects like this are very very cost prohibited and with the projected budget of $77 billion it looks like too many billions to handle.

Brightline Buys XpressWest High Speed Rail which will connect Victorville to Las Vegas

Brightline is the nation’s largest and only privately owned operated express intercity passenger rail system. Brightline funded the Florida rail corridor previously. The Florida rail is a proven privately funded model for the Las Vegas Express. Brightline will now take over the construction, land acquisition. The initial phase is expected to build the right of way along Hwy 15 without pedestrian crossings. They expect construction to begin in 2019 with completion by 2022. The planned Las Vegas station is expected to run right to the resort corridor with access to limo’s, shuttles, taxi’s and rider sharing firms. The Victorville connection is 30 to 45 minutes from Los Angeles. They plan on additional stations and connectivity to the Metrolink which connects in Palmdale. They hope to also connect to the Cal High Speed rail likely at that junction also. Brightline’s ambitious plan is to complete the 190 miles from Victorville to Las Vegas in just three years. If they pull off their plan all privately funded then it will show Cal-High-Speed Rail authority’s costs and construction is way too expensive and slow. Overall it is good news for the high desert and Los Angeles.

A Bullet Train Path has been Picked From Palmdale to Burbank

The LA Times recently reported. The California High Speed Rail will cut through Sun Valley, San Fernando, Santa Clarita and Agua Dulce, the state rail authority proposed yesterday. The 40 mile route mostly follows Hwy 14 via tunnels. It is supposed to be the least expensive route to Burbank. It looks that the route could affect homes, businesses, an airport and a hospital. A big factor and problem is the passage under the San Gabriel and Tehachapi Mountains. That cost is estimated to be $26 to $45 billion just for that? That will include a 7 mile tunnel, but if you going six hundred miles per hour you’ll hardly notice it. According to the LA Times, The Santa Clarita City Council had told the rail authority it would oppose any route that was not fully underground. “Anything above ground takes out homes, schools and churches,” she said. “That is not going to happen.” Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti supports the rail project. The mayors office prefers using the current Metrolink commuter rail right of way from Burbank to Palmdale which was built in 1870. The Bay Area plan is to use the right of way along the CalTrain from Gilroy to San Francisco, but the State said no. A draft environmental report is due in 2019 with a final in 2020. The rail authority’s plan says the Los Angeles-to-San Francisco system would be completed by 2033, but there are no funds to build the LA portion. The projected costs hit $77 billion this year, more than double the original estimate, and its completion date is now more than a decade delayed.

High Desert Corridor Freeway Approved? Time to Buy Land along the Route

The high desert corridor freeway is set to connect from Sierra Hwy and then east to Interstate 15 in Adelanto San Bernardino County. The highway will essentially run by the Cal High Speed Rail Palmdale terminal and run along Ave P-8 in Palmdale. It runs along P-8 and makes a turn north of Sun Village then is will drop down south of Lake Los Angeles and run along Q-10 to Q-12 which are just south of Palmdale Blvd. It will run for miles east to Adelanto and Interstate 15 which connects to Las Vegas. The news about this toll road has been coming down the pike for several years, but now it look like it will actually happen. This will happen long before the Cal High Speed rail arrives in Palmdale. Buying land along this route looks to be a real steal as land along P-8 in Palmdale in mostly industrial land and we can acquire it for a low cost. Also land south of Lake LA going east is very cheap in today’s market. This maybe a time to buy the east side of Antelope Valley and hold for a short term price increase. Contact us at sales@vacantlanddeals.com if you interested in buying along this corridor. The future is now and eastern Antelope Valley maybe a buying opportunity at low prices.

The California Bullet Train Future May hang in the Balance This Election Cycle

Democratic California Governor Candidates approve of the train while the two leading GOP candidates oppose it. California voters approved Proposition 1A approving nearly $10 billion in bond money for the construction of the high-speed rail system yet since the 2008 vote the costs and overruns are taxing the State population. New polls who voters want their money to go elsewhere. There planned 119 Central Valley run has less obstacles, but future planned tunnels may cause environmental conscience voters to irk. The line from San Francisco to Bakersfield may not be operational until 2029. Costs continue to go up and Ion particular, there's cost and various other challenges posed by the tunneling through the Pacheco Pass, which the business plan termed "the critical link between the Silicon Valley and the Central Valley. Each time Sacramento gets new reports they all involve more money and more time. Democratic candidates want the spending to continue as well as labor unions. Public opinion has an opposing view. June 5, 2018 primary will decide which two gubernatorial candidates, regardless of party, advance to the general election Nov. 6. Front-runner Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom has expressed concerns on the proposed rail plan. However, Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat and former Los Angeles mayor said in a statement he supports the rail project and claims "unlike others, his position has been consistent." California secured about $3.3 billion in federal stimulus funds in 2009 but has burned through about $2.5 billion of that money. Some say no sane investor would ever put money into this thing and the federal government cut off the spigot a long time ago. Some economist think tech worker may live in Bakersfield and commute by high speed to work if the train actually gets completed, but that is at least a decade away and billions of dollars in State debt. Can this train ever make money as a return on the investment? Private money managers say no. It is now up to the next governor to kill it, or keep running up the bills. Seems to be the only two avenues remaining.

California Bullet train First Stage (Central Valley) will Cost Almost double from Original Estimate of $6 Billion

The LA Times recently reported that the CalHighSpeed Rail budget ballooned $2.8 billion with a total estimated cost to build at $10.6 billion. The original estimate was $6 billion for the central valley portion. This according to the LA Times is the worst case scenario. The cost increases stem from higher land acquisition costs, costs of relocating utility systems, new safety barriers in the area freight and Speed rails trains meet. The new chief executive director Brian Kelley ($400k salary) said the high speed rail is crucial for the future economic needs of the State, but it has tough challenges. Such as where are they going to get the new $2.8 billion? This will require the state legislator for more money. The State approved the bonds and the increase will cover the train for the central valley, but if they are having such cost overruns now in the lower priced valley. How can they pay for land acquisition in the Bay Area and downtown LA? The original projection was that this fancy rail line would cost $40 billion and it is now estimated to need $64 billion to complete. The new report brings to view that the authorities underestimation for the cost to acquire the land, the environmental approvals and subsequent litigation. Many critics are saying that the authority estimated lower costs to politically protect the project. They basically underestimated the costs and overstated the benefits. I guess when it is not your personal money being spent it is easy to do. The LA Times spoke to James Moore, director of the transportation engineering program at USC. "It is in my opinion overly deceptive. We have seen on transportation projects this militant defense that is meant to cause the public to remain calm." Moore forewarns that the costs are likely to produce much greater future increases. On the horizon are more difficult segments, such as the long underground passage through the Tehachapi and San Gabriel Mountains and the route into the urban San Francisco Bay Area. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom has declined to even speak about the rail for the past two years. Liberal state governor candidates are avoiding the issue entirely. Repaying the bonds will cost $18 billion in the next 30 years. This means our roads will suffer, and money will not be available for Hwy improvements. One of their biggest mistakes has been they have not acquired the land in advance. They indicated they will amend that mistake, but acquiring the land and then planning the construction. Does that mean they will begin buying in the Antelope Valley? Likely not right away, but they will begin the process much earlier. Part of the problem as well maybe that California is a one party state. Only liberals make decisions, and opposing views are not even considered.

A Tale of Two Tracks

Currently the largest infrastructure project is both in limbo and at full-speed ahead. The Cal Rail Authority’s has a long term plan to run 500 miles from San Francisco to San Jose before turning to the valley and south to Los Angeles. The fast train is expected to take 2 ½ hour and be well under one hundred dollars, maybe under fifty. They will need a lot of riders to cover the current 64 Billion price tag and ongoing operation costs. The target is limited service from San Francisco to Bakersfield will launch in 2025. The world will have crowned two world cup champions by then. That is not far away. That will entail a lot of digging between San Francisco and San Jose. That is expensive real estate within two major California municipalities. Money: Money from Washington is critical for Jerry Brown’s dream project which can’t be funded alone by state and private financing. The government in Sacramento is at polar odds with the White House. The House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield, sent a letter this since the inauguration to The Department of Transportation, requesting a halt Fed funds and grants for the electrification of Caltrain’s Bay Area corridor. This upgrade is essential for the high speed rail. Right now Fresno is booming with construction. Hwy 99 is being diverted to accommodate the rail line. Bridges are being built, homes relocated, roads changed, thousands of acres of land has been bought. Dirt is flying everywhere and Fresno is benefiting. This project has been going on since 2015, but lawsuits and land acquisitions have set things back. Wait until they get to a major city. California approved this dream in 2008, and costs have almost doubled since then. When has the government done anything under budget? It the project runs out of money and the federal government withdraws then the rail must be handed over to Amtrak. Could this be the most expensive Amtrak upgrade? Will California seek funds from abroad? If that funding comes from China then they may require China steel and Chinese trains. This is not like building the transcontinental railroad in the 1800’s with undeveloped land making the “Big Four” the richest in the west. At some point the steam will come to a head.

Cal High Speed Rail Building Progress

There is a new site by the Cal High Speed Rail Authority which shows progress of the construction of the high speed rail. It is www.buildhsr.com It shows a list of all the projects https://www.buildhsr.com/projects/ Interactive Maps https://www.buildhsr.com/interactive_map/ with projects along Hwy 99 from Madera to Fresno. For instance here are some details with images of Road 27 Overpass OVERVIEW Construction is currently underway on an overcrossing that will carry traffic over future high-speed and existing BNSF rail lines outside the town of Madera, eliminating an existing at grade crossing. LOCATION On Road 27 between Club Drive and Avenue 17 near Madera Acres. CURRENTLY Concrete has been poured for the north abutment and crews are now preparing the falsework for a concrete pour of the abutment on the south side of the structure. Falsework is also being constructed to build the bent caps on top of the support columns. If your wondering what is going on and the progress you can see it for yourself and get timelines and pictures.

Hyperloop Progress....

Not long ago Elon Musk challenged the Cal High Speed Rail authority insinuation a better solution to a High Speed rail would be a Hyperloop. A Hyperloop works like a vacuum tube thrusting a pod at speeds greater than the speed of sound. There are at least three firms engineering a Hyperloop system in order to make this theory a reality. News reports indicate Hyperloop One completed a test in Las Vegas and propelled a pod 192 mph. This is about a third of the way to the final speed of 700 mph. Some say human can’t take that speed on the ground. It would do funny things to the stomach. We bring this up as the CalHighSpeedRail continues its construction and journey to provide human transport in California with a stop in Palmdale. It is possible that Hyperloop technology will only be used for freight. A technology that will seriously damage freight trains and long haul trucking. A job killer. A Hyperloop may not be a California or US solution as Russia and Middle Eastern Countries have interest in feasibility studies. Elon Musk who has said he would not develop the tech commercially recently tweeted that he had verbal government approval for the Boring Company to construct a Hyperloop system in the East Coast from New York to Washington. Washington never seemed to be in a hurry to go to work, so we will see how far this goes. Hundreds of mile underground? That maybe as much fantasy as a fully funded High Speed Rail in California. The jury is out on both.

High Speed Rail Private Property Purchase Right of Way Process

The Cal High Speed Rail has a process regarding how they will buy private property for the planned rail line. Once they target property within their proposed path or alternate path then they begin a property evaluation process. They will put together a design and survey to start the process to prepare a boundary survey with a legal description and appraisal maps. Once this is done they will begin the appraisal, but only after the approval of the approved and alternate routes. Then they will meet with the private property owner and do an appraisal inspection. A surveyor may stake the area and the evaluation may include mitigation to re-establish remainder. Once this is complete they will do an appraisal review with a final approval process. Then an acquisition process begins but after the Notice of Determination (NOD) and (ROD) Record of decision is made. The negotiation initiation is made with the property owner. They may consider new information at this time, and then the final approval process will start. If there is an established farm, home, or business in the path then a relocation process may commence with a 90 day notice. The farm, home or business may get moving expenses paid, or other benefits. If a business can show a loss of business goodwill then that business can file a claim, but they will have to show a burden of proof. This may include tax returns, or other evidence showing income loss due to relocation if applicable. This is all part of their right of way process. If you believe your business or private property is within the path then you should maintain your records of business if you wish to make a claim for a higher value, or a business loss.

California is Building a High Speed Rail for Florida

Brightline, being developed by All Aboard Florida. It will connect riders in Miami to Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and Orlando via railway. This is much the same as the Calhigh Speed Rail is attempting in California, but the Cal High Speed Rail is a Government project. The Brightline Miami to Orlando project is completely privately funded. They anticipate a plan to get people out of their cars by featuring food, drinks, affordable rates and comfortable seats. They are attempting to make a train more convenient than driving a car. They will also build travel hubs with retail space, residential homes and commercial properties. These trains are being built by Siemens in Sacramento. It seems like Florida has created a more cost effective solution to high speed rail travel with private funding and control, while California very expensive system is government run and currently underfunded. Maybe California will get a clue that privately funded Brightline and the Hyperloop is a more economical solution. The bottom line though is high speed transport is the future. If you look at self driving cars, Uber and Lyft private car solutions then a personal car is not like it used to be. Additionally, the potential growth of electric buses like BVD, and electric cars like Tesla also project a more economical environmentally friendly outlook in the plans.

Hyperloop Firms are Both Progressing in the High Speed Transport Systems

Hyperloop is a propsed system to transport cargo and passengers in a elevated system via vacuum tubes. The system which also uses magnets to propel the tube 760 miles per hour , which would carry people or cargo from Los Angeles to San Francisco in 30 minutes. Hyperloop Transportation Technologies also known as (HTT), recently unveiled magnetic technology that will allow the pods to levitate and move. The system was developed by Lawrence Livermore Labs with HTT. HTT has exclusively licensed the system for their Hyperloop project. The way the system works is that pods will be propelled by an electric motor and the magnetic field created by permanent magnets will help the capsules levitate. Also, when the pods decelerate, the energy created will be used to recharge the batteries of the motor. There are no designed plans to make have this system in California or anywhere in the US, but it is clear that it can be a rival system to the CalHighSpeed Rail system. It will also be less expensive to construct and to use. Additionally, it will cost much much less to construct. The Hyperloop system will utilize passive levitation system which will eliminate the need for power stations along the Hyperloop track. This further cuts down on construction and further makes the system less expensive and energy efficient. This past January, HTT filed for construction permits of the first full-scale five-mile hyperloop track in Quay Valley, California, which is in central California. The company is also crowd sourcing its funding and they have over 10,000 people self funding the project. This Hyperloop system is quickly and quietly becoming a real system. Although many say it will be best used in cargo transport, which will cut down on long haul truckers. Increasingly, technology is eliminating jobs near and long term.

The Hyperloop is Coming and Maybe to a Town Near You

A half billionaire and venture capitalist who has funded Uber, Airbnb, Munchery among other ventures is backing Hyperloop Technologies. He is Shervin Pishevar and not long ago he made a pitch to Senator Harry Reid. Granted Senator Reid will soon be out of office, but this science fiction project is gathering attention. The billionaire Elon Musk is also pushing the program and both parties are conducting test programs in Texas and Las Vegas. The Hyperlook may not supersede the CalhighSpeedRail, but it will give many to pause. If cargo can be transported from Los Angeles to Denver or beyond via a Hyperloop then that changes transport costs. I will really change the way transport is done. It should clearly be a threat to the HighSpeed Trains, and the Airline industry. It this takes off like these innovators see it then it can eliminate the commute. A loop could run above a freeway and zip people for under ten dollars from downtown to LAX, or from San Francisco to San Jose and then maybe you can hope into a driver-less car to take you to the office. It is not that far off to being a reality.

SpaceX has Awarded MIT Team The design Contest for the Hyperloop

The Hyperloop is progressing. In this case it is Elon Musk's SpaceX financed Loop.The MIT grad students won out against a 100 other teams. This design will go into a proto-type in Hawthorne California. The proposed system would use pods traveling in tubes in a vacuum at 750 MPH from Houston to Dallas, or San Francisco to LA. The design is an elevated design above the ground and MIT design has been reported as using magnets. There are now several plans in place and all designed in the US. We will see which one or many work out. This certainly competes with a high speed rail in California which will cost billions. We are still unsure if the Hyperloop is really feasible as it will take a person at 750MPH. Some design include carrying vehicles. Hyperloop people say a person will not realize they are going 750 MPH, but how can it turn? Critics say a person can handle a change even gradual turns or rising and falling without getting sick. If that is the case then a Hyperloop would have to be at the same level from San Francisco to LA. It just seems impossible to be at say 50 feet up all the way since California is not flat. We will see where this goes.

The Hyperloop is coming to Las Vegas

Elon Musk’s radical transport system will be tested in Nevada in 2016. It has been recently reported that the Hyperloop is coming to Nevada for testing. Hyperloop Technologies and the Nevada Governor’s office selected 50 acres in North Las Vegas at Apex Industrial park to test out the prototype system. This proposed system will reach speeds to 700 plus MPH or San Francisco to LA in 30 minutes. This system will be tested by in Las Vegas. A rival test will be done by a separate company Hyperloop Transportation Technology north of Los Angeles. The Hyperloop plan will be elevated above ground and it will carry tubes powered mainly by solar energy. There may be some hic-ups in the engineering, but Elon Muck Hyperloop Technologies and the rival LA group Hyperloop Transportation Technology are both pushing this technology forward. There always seems to be a reference of the SF to LA, but this could work Dallas to Houston, or maybe NY to Washington. It is a rival to the California High Speed Rail and the Xpress West High Speed train from Los Angeles (Victorville to Las Vegas). The Cal High Speed Rail has broken ground in the Central Valley, but there are not enough funds currently to move it along to Palmdale. The Hyperloop has estimated that the cost per passenger from SF to LA maybe under $30, while the high speed rail will need $billions to complete will cost more per passenger. Let’s let this play out and see whose technology and if the State and Federal Government will approve a Hyperloop since they have already spent money and have voter approval on the Rail line.

Problems with the Hyperloop

We continue our input on mass transit in Californian and the alternative to the currently approved High Speed Rail, which is only partially funded. Like issues with the Cal High Speed Rail and we are sure there were issues with the US highway system that was introduced in the 50’s. There are a few major issues that would have to be addresses with the Hyperloop. The Hyperloop will as all mass transit has land rights issues. Getting right of ways locally and regionally. That is an avenue that can be addressed if the system is more than a science project. There will certainly be environmental issues as any development has to address. Two big issues though may make it an unsound idea. If it proves to be sound as a prototype then practical issues would need to be overcome. The Cato Institute says a big one is how much energy the Hyperloop would require. The linear propulsion system and the air pressure pumps for the tubes would probably need much more energy than would be provided by the solar panels Musk proposes installing on the tubes and the energy recovery system he envisions having at the end of the route, said Roger Goodall, a maglev train expert and a professor of control systems engineering at the United Kingdom's Loughborough University. Another big issue is that the Hyperloop would have to go straight. If this vacuum tube runs at 800 miles per hour or more, then scientists say a human could not take a bend at that speed without deposited their lunch or breakfast on the seats or other passengers. The force of moving a human body at such speeds a few feet left or right or up and down over a hill maybe too much for a passenger. It is likely unrealistic to think you can have a straight shot from San Francisco to Los Angeles. There would have to be bends in the plan. If this can be overcome then maybe there is hope for a $20 one way ride, not including your car. But is there enough energy to do it with just solar? And will the development costs far exceed the construction costs. Things to consider.

California High-Speed Rail Authority Making Its Case in Developing the Route

The high speed rail authority is make a case for the rail system based on population projections of an increase in 12 million new inhabitants in the State by 2040. They propose that the rail system will be in place from San Francisco to Los Angeles by 2029. They have only started construction on the first 29 miles of the system began in January, and the will be building their first river crossing bridge over the Fresno River soon. An AV Press article stated from an event that the alignments for the two portions of the system going through the Antelope Valley Have not been determined. They do have a plan from Bakersfield over the Tehachapi Mountains, and from there into the northern end of Lancaster still needs to be determined. They did indicate they wanted to avoid the wind turbines and any mining so at least that is a hint. They said they will run along Sierra Highway, which is where the existing railroad track is located. According to the AVPress article: There are four major routes, plus a couple of sub-routes, being looked at between Palmdale and Burbank. The original proposals paralleled the Antelope Valley Freeway (Hwy 14) between Acton and Santa Clarita, but new alternatives include underground routes proposed to tunnel through the San Gabriel Mountains with the aim of avoiding opponents in the Acton area and the Santa Clarita Valley. And then there is the cost which is estimated to be $68 Billion. The rail authority’s case against this cost is that it will cost $158 Billion if they created new highways, expanding airports, and made new roads. So $68 Billion sounds like a bargain. It maybe a tough sell either way as the costs to do nothing will likely be congestion. If you own land along Sierra Hwy at some point you may get an offer letter, but it still maybe decades away as we don’t see a system in place by 2029 from SF to LA.

Rail Versus Kit Fox

Environmentalists say the $68 Billion rail maybe unended by the Kit Fox? There are lots of animals in this trains path. Kit Fox today burrowing Owl tomorrow. The Fresno Bee reported that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service say the California Higher-Speed Rail Authority and Federal Railroad Administration are out of compliance with environmental commitments for creating the bullet-train line in the Fresno-Madera area. The contractor Tutor Perini Zachry Parsons which sounds more like a law firm infringed on the Kit Fox’s habitat. The Kit Fox is an endangered species since 67. Biologist say the Kit Fox den was not active last summer, so the Fox didn’t product kits. The Kits Fox is a very small animal about the size of a cat. What do Californians love more than Global Warming, no I mean Climate Change is an Endangered species. We are will the fox on this one as the project has been a bad idea since the beginning. Way too expensive and way too unnecessary. The Hyper Loop looks to be the way to go if you need long haul transports. Stay tuned for more on this issue in coming months.

HyperLoop Test Track in California

Elon Musk has has pushed the Hyperloop forward from a dream to a test track. The Hyperloop train is a proposal to move people and cars at super speeds (760 mph) via a tube system. You could move from San Francisco to Los Angeles in under 45 minutes and drive your car right away. It appears that Elon Musk’s “hyperloop” system will build a test track in Texas. Another developer is proposing to build a test track in Quay Valley in Kings County. Quay Valley has been a proposed sustainable community, or a modern 21st century town from the ground up. It runs along Hwy 5 in central California. Quay Valley is not unlike Centennial in Antelope Valley has proposed. This proposed hyperloop track will be slower and shorter than Musk’s Loop in Texas. This slower system will allow engineers to study the system to load and unloading people and movement of the system. They have the land and they indicate they have the money also. We continue to bring this up as a Hyperloop would be a less expensive alternative to the CalHighSpeed Rail.

Tesla and Space X CEO Elon Musk Plans to Build a 5 Mile Test Track for his Hyperloop Transportation System

Elon Musk is bringing the Hyperloop project closer to reality. He said recently that he is making plans to bring a testing facility for the ultra-fast Hyperloop system. It will likely be made in Texas and it will be approximately 5 miles long. The plan according to his tweet is to create pods connected to a train system and these pods will transport passengers and likely cars at hyper speeds between destinations. The system is based on creating a vacuum and theoretically transporting passengers from San Francisco to Los Angeles in under an hour. He said in his tweets that his Hyperloop track would be open to other companies and students “to test out their pods.” This is in direct competition to the CalHighSpeed Rail which has recently broken ground in Fresno with media hype and political backing from Democrats and Gov. Jerry Brown. The Hyperloop system is projected to cost billions less than the CalHighSpeed Rail, and the Hyperloop can transport your car and you.