Harvard University’s endowment is buying up vineyards in California’s wine country, and the water rights

Harvard is using a wholly owned subsidiary named Brodiaea after the scientific name for the cluster lily —to buy vineyards. They have bought 10,000 acres in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties for about $60 million, according to an earlier report by Reuters. Harvard Crimson has indicated that they have bought even more land in California. They have targeted vineyards with ground water access. Water rights and uses are becoming prime needs for California’s central valley after long drought years. Some aquifers have reach critical levels. Antelope Valley is an area where water is at a premium. If you’re within the city limits than you may not have a problem other that higher rates from municipalities. If you have water rights in LA County with water shares to Mutual water companies, or a well on the property then you are in good hands. Harvard sees something in this area to invest over $60 million in California land. If you don’t have water rights or access than this investment maybe something to consider. Harvard being liberal minded takes into account global warming in their investments, but water access doesn’t need warming. Water is a commodity and maybe worth more than gold as the state grows in population. While some local farmers say they aren’t worried about Harvard’s purchases of vineyards, others—as well

LA County Building first New Freeway in 25 Years in Antelope Valley

The Los Angeles Times has reported that buying land and digging begins June 2018. That is correct Cal Trans and Joint Powers Authority has commenced the project for the freeway between Lancaster and Palmdale to San Bernardino. If you own land along P-8 you may be getting a call shortly. The $8 Billion dollar project will connect Hwy 14 to Interstate 15 along a 63 mile route. The environmental impact report has already been approved. This paves the way for land purchases along the route. They have $274 million set aside for land purchases via a sales tax increase from Measure M. Many are complaining about the environmental ecosystems of the burrowing owl, desert tortoise and kangaroo squirrel, but I failed to mention the Joshua tree and many other sensitive life. Many have squirreled away old land purchases in the hopes for development. Well the next few months you may get your opportunity. Much of the land along the route is barren unused land with little to no development in site especially along the eastern part of the valley. This land sells today for $1k/acre to a high of $2k/acre. Sellers may get more due to the need, but eminent domain may push the lower price based on recent sales. There is other land within the city limits of Palmdale and Lancaster that will fetch a much higher price, as the route moves mostly along P-8 and it will feed to the future High Speed Rail. If you have looked to sell or looked to buy then today maybe one of the best opportunities on the east side.

Palmdale Power Plant Gets Approved

Seattle Alternative Energy gets California Energy Commission approval and certification to build and operate a proposed natural gas power plant in Palmdale. It will a 650 megawatt plant that will cost three quarters of a billion. The two year construction will begin on Ave M at Sierra Hwy There was a petition a couple of years ago by Summit Power Group and since amended and change from a hybrid natural gas and solar power plant to just natural gas only. So the solar component idea is out and this also reduces the overall size of the plant from over 300 acres to just 50 acres. This new change has become effective just last month. It also passes environmental quality thresholds. There will be a almost 400 jobs created to build the project and less than 25 to operate it. It would have been more appealing if the project was part solar, but it now frees up more land that the city of Palmdale will eventually need to sell.

Hyperloop Progress....

Not long ago Elon Musk challenged the Cal High Speed Rail authority insinuation a better solution to a High Speed rail would be a Hyperloop. A Hyperloop works like a vacuum tube thrusting a pod at speeds greater than the speed of sound. There are at least three firms engineering a Hyperloop system in order to make this theory a reality. News reports indicate Hyperloop One completed a test in Las Vegas and propelled a pod 192 mph. This is about a third of the way to the final speed of 700 mph. Some say human can’t take that speed on the ground. It would do funny things to the stomach. We bring this up as the CalHighSpeedRail continues its construction and journey to provide human transport in California with a stop in Palmdale. It is possible that Hyperloop technology will only be used for freight. A technology that will seriously damage freight trains and long haul trucking. A job killer. A Hyperloop may not be a California or US solution as Russia and Middle Eastern Countries have interest in feasibility studies. Elon Musk who has said he would not develop the tech commercially recently tweeted that he had verbal government approval for the Boring Company to construct a Hyperloop system in the East Coast from New York to Washington. Washington never seemed to be in a hurry to go to work, so we will see how far this goes. Hundreds of mile underground? That maybe as much fantasy as a fully funded High Speed Rail in California. The jury is out on both.

Kinkisharyo’s Plant is Showing Growth

Kinkisharyo's is a light rail car assembly facility at Plant 42. It recently celebrated in its production of its 78th rail car for the Los Angeles Metro Authority. This completes their first contract with LA Metro and moves them onto a new beginning. All the manufacturing is done at the Plant 42 plant in Palmdale with about four hundred workers. It is part of an almost billion dollar contract to deliver over 200 rail cars. The recent completion triggers a new phase and new agreement with LA Metro to produce more cars, and to expand the plant. If you recall several years ago there was a big legal disagreement. The unions accused Kinkisharyo of violating environmental acts. This forced the company to consider a move to Phoenix Arizona where other manufacturing is done. The disagreement would have killed jobs in Palmdale, which the city desperately needed. The company felt the union move was ruse by the union to force the company to use its workers. The company decided to drop their factory expansion, but they later won an agreement to use an existing building once operated to make the B-1B bomber. A swords to plowshares change. Additionally the company agreed to not fight unionization. The Palmdale workers are now represented by the International Brotherhood of Electrical workers. This success provides security and jobs in the valley, and it is not just as airplane bomber producing area, but an environmentally conscious area as it is combined with the BYD electric bus manufacturing in Lancaster. This keeps workers in the area, which busts the local economy and areas growth.

New Developments and Future Planning in Palmdale

The 47th Pavilion (Avenue R and 47th Street East) Super Target Center America’s Tire is under construction north of the Bank of America. The store will be approximately 7,300 square feet in size. Plaza Vallarta (Avenue R and 47th Street East) O’Reilly Auto Parts is constructing a 7,200 square foot store north of Chase Bank Rancho Vista Boulevard and Town Center Drive WalMart will be constructing a 40,000 square foot market on the north side of Ranch Vista Boulevard, west of Town Center Drive. The market is not a supercenter but it will include grocery. As of April there was a Tentative Tract Map 73143 requesting approval to subdivide a 40 acre parcel into two parcels, a ten acre commercial parcel and a 30 acre residential parcel. Tentative Tract Map 73158 is a request to subdivide a 30 acre parcel into 102 residential lots, including two detention basin lots. The project site is located between Avenue Q and Palmdale Boulevard, east of 42nd Street East

Selling Homes Has been Tough for the Builder, But they have a New Buyers from Abroad

CNBC reported "This is a tough market condition. We have seen the market recover since the downturn, but the recovery has been slow, steady and in a pretty tight band," said Stuart Miller, CEO of Miami-based Lennar. He said land costs and entitlement costs are getting too high. Although, the demand for an entry level home is at the highest. This area is mortgage constrained, since first time buyers can’t get a mortgage easily. The builders like Lennar are now building multiple housing development apartments and renting them. They are also building rental communities. They build the home and rent out each home in the entire community. DR Horton makes a starter home brand called “Express Homes”, which are tailored for the first time home buyer. There is a new buyer in the US and it is the Chinese. They are the primary factor driving up investments in the US. According to a CNBC report from Rosen Consulting Group the Chinese direct investment in the US commercial real estate sector and residential sales could hit $218 Billion in the next four years. Chinese foreign direct investment into the U.S. totaled about $22.3 billion in 2015, an increase from roughly $18.1 billion in the prior year, according to the report. The increase is an average of 54 Billion a year. According the CNBC reporting Chinese owners acquired at least $8.5 billion in commercial property and at least $28.6 billion in residential property in 2015. Looking to 2025, the report projected that commercial acquisitions could hit $20 billion by then and residential buying could reach $50 billion. The reason for all this new investment increase is that larger firms in China including insurance firms have not invested in the US. This large Chinese investment is based upon the Chinese government currency value, and economic uncertainty in China. The Chinese government is imposing controls on how much money can leave China, but the Chinese are still getting their money out into US Real Estate Investment. The currency devaluation issue and the rules on long term real estate investment in a communist country has been the impetus for capital to flee. In China a person only has a lease-hold on property for say 70 to 100 years, so you can not pass on real estate to heirs. This is not an issue in the US. Expect greater Chinese investment in real estate, and home builders to build apartments instead of entry level homes.

The Builders Index Or Housing Starts was down 1.09M in March vs. 1.17M expected

U.S. housing starts fell more than expected in March. The housing permits applications are also at a year low. This is a US number and not an Antelope Valley number, but is shows a slowing in housing being built. This may be different in the Antelope Valley for the future due to the new Stealth Bomber building plans at Northrop Grumman’s Plant 42. This does show a slow done in the first quarter housing starts for the first half of 2016 nationwide. The overall groundbreaking decreased 8.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.09 million units. This is the lowest level since October according to the Commerce Department. Although, last months housing starts were revised up, but only slightly from 1.19 million from 1.18 million. The largest segment of the housing market is the single family and that dropped almost 10 percent or 9.2 percent. This is the lowest national number since last fall. Again this is a national number and maybe different in Los Angeles County, but it is a reflection of the new housing market for 2016

Antelope Valley is the Silicon Sky

This is a reprint of an article from the AVPress by Jim Keen After suffering more than its fair share of down time, the Antelope Valley is on the upswing and the outlook for its leading industry, aerospace, is bright. In an essay titled "The Unfolding of Silicon Sky," economist Christopher Thornberg notes the Antelope Valley suffered through hard times in the 1990s from defense cutbacks and was hit hard than most areas in the housing market bust of the Great Recession. "The good news is that the Antelope Valley is on an upward swing and clearly recovering from the recession," Thornberg wrote in the essay, which appears in the 2016 Economic Roundtable Report produced by the Greater Antelope Valley Economic Alliance, or GAVEA. Thornberg is the founder of Beacon Economics and has been a frequent visitor to the Antelope Valley. Thornberg says signs of that upswing include home prices that are increasing at a 9% pace, falling unemployment, taxable sales growing at a healthy 5% rate, population growth holding steady at just under 1%, and overall job growth being at just above 2%. "While new construction remains subdued locally, growing unaffordability in the core areas of Los Angeles will undoubtedly create a new surge in local demand over the next few years," Thornberg wrote. The biggest bright spot is aerospace. "This isn't your father's aerospace industry, back when gutsy test pilots and bigger jet engines defined the industry," Thornberg wrote. "Today, it is all about material sciences and advanced computer technology." Thornberg notes some of the industry's recent milestones, including billionaire Paul Allen opting to build a giant airplane in Mojave to launch satellites into space, Northrop Grumman winning the contract to develop America's next bomber, and activity by the Air Force and the Navy in redesigning major weapon systems in the region. "All of these efforts require massive R&D activity and extensive high-tech supply chains - bringing in a new wave of suppliers and sub-contractors. These will be high-tech firms with highly skilled employees and represent an opportunity for the area to become a high-tech hub," Thornberg wrote. The key for the region is to make it as easy as possible for these companies and workers to come to the Antelope Valley, Thornberg said. The region will also need to make sure the area is a place where tech workers would want to live by improving education, expanding entertainment and retail options, and making space for high-end housing, Thornberg said.

New Positive Jobs News on the Antelope Valley Horizon

Northrop Grumman was awarded the “B3” new stealth bomber contract, but it is under appeal by Lockheed and Boeing. Lockheed also has a presence in Palmdale, if there is any change maybe Lockheed will get some input. The entire bidding process takes time, so it looks like Northrup will get the bid unless there was any illegal backdoor deals. But there is no evidence of that. Additionally, BYD is building electric buses and expanding their footprint in other cities and States. Also Kinkishiryo which is also in Palmdale has been building some rail cars for the Metro Rapid Transit system. They were going to pull out of Palmdale at one point, but tempers and accusations cooled. There are several solar power facilities taking place on the west side. These projects are being built and jobs are operating. Once the conduction faze is complete then many of those construction jobs will be gone. But it seems as soon as a project is completed then another one gets started. The sun keeps shining on solar in Lancaster and LA County land. More engineering jobs like these especially the new stealth bomber and the bus and train construction and manufacturing creates a need for housing in ownership and rentals. This all increases the value of land over time. This is all positive news for real estate and land investment.

Northrop Grumman’s New Bomber Gets Budget Approval, Good News for Palmdale

The Air Force said indicated it chose Northrop Grumman Corp., maker of the B-2 stealth bomber which was previously built in Palmdale Ca. Now Northrop Grumman will to build the next-generation bomber, which is highly classified. The cost is projected to be $80 billion to replace the aging bomber fleet. It may also be able to fly without a pilot aboard. It is a bid announcement for the Pentagon as they are planning to modernize their nuclear force, submarines, and long range bombers which is dubbed the B-3. The total budget is $348 billion over 10 years and other says it will be $1 Trillion in 30 years. Previously, Northrop Grumman said it could create 1,500 new jobs in Palmdale under the bomber contract. These new jobs should move the needle in the Palmdale housing market as new high tech engineers will be needed for this project as well as hundreds of admin support staff.