The Desert Landscape of Antelope Valley has Grown Enormously Since 1980

The population and landscape of the Antelope Valley has undergone a substantial transformation the last 40 years. In the 1980s, the area began shifting from a sparsely populated, mostly white, high desert life to a bedroom community. Prices in lower LA County have priced out lower income families who then sought better housing costs in Lancaster and Palmdale. About 75000 AV residents commute daily into the greater Los Angeles area for work via car and rail. As of 2012 the population of AV is 507k with 153k in Palmdale and 157k in Lancaster with the remainder in the surrounding smaller cities. 48% of the population is non-Hispanic white, the second largest group is Hispanic, then African American and Asian. With the gradual growth has come a water issue. The aqueduct has brought in water since 1970 but as of 1964 Agriculture has taken most of the water, and in the AV farming land takes up more water per acre than anywhere else in the state. Currently, 35,000 acres of desert land, originally cultivated within Antelope Valley, lie fallow while about 10,000 acres are still actively farmed. AV got its greatest growth in the 80’s growing from 60 thousand to 222k by mid 1990. And 485k by 2010. That is 8 times in thirty years. Today with the growth of the Aerospace industry, solar farms, regional hospitals, the housing market has grown. These jobs are professional jobs with higher incomes allowing for much nicer homes, and many parts of the valley are now filling this need. If the valley continues to grow then more housing will certainly be needed.

AV Sees Double-digit Home Price Gains

This is a reprint of an AV Press Article By: Jim Skeen AV Press PALMDALE - Lancaster and Palmdale neighborhoods saw double-digit home price gains in August, according to a report from CoreLogic. Lancaster's 93534 ZIP code had a median home price of $185,000 in August (57 sales), up 13.3% over the year. Lancaster's 93535 ZIP code had a median home price of $200,000 (98 sales), up 17.6%. Lancaster's 93536 ZIP code had a median price of $300,000 (122 sales), up 10.5%. Palmdale's 93550 ZIP code had a median home price of $220,000 (75 sales) in August, up 13.4% over the year. Palmdale's 93551 ZIP code had a median price of $336,000 (111 sales), up 10.2%. Palmdale's 93552 ZIP code had a median price of $259,000 (65 sales), up 19.4% over the year. Earlier this month, the Greater Antelope Valley Association of Realtors reported there were 517 homes sold in August in the region, a 4% increase over August 2015. Through August, 3,523 homes were sold in the Antelope Valley, down slightly from the 3,535 recorded at this point in 2015. The average selling price of an Antelope Valley home in August was $263,505, up 15% over August 2015. The average selling price of an Antelope Valley home so far this year is $244,038, up 10% from this point in 2015. Of the August transactions, 3% were foreclosures and 2% were short sales. In a separate report, CoreLogic reported there were 23,278 new and existing homes sold in Southern California in August, the highest tally for that month in a decade. The region's sales were up 9.5% over the year. In Los Angeles County, 7,725 new and existing homes were sold, a 5.4% year-over-year increase. The median price of a Southern California home was $465,000 in August, a 6.2% increase over the year. In the county, the median price was $530,000, a 6% increase. "Job growth, low interest rates, household formation and other factors helped drive up activity," said Andrew LePage, an analyst with CoreLogic. "The big picture is that the housing market continues to edge back toward normalcy in the wake of the worst housing bust in modern history." Existing homes in California sold at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 420,360 units in August, down 2.2% from a year earlier, according to a report from the California Association of Realtors. August was the sixth straight month of year-over-year sales declines. The median price of an existing, single-family California home in August was $526,580, up 5.8% from August 2015. The association's Unsold Inventory Index, which indicates the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate dipped from 3.6 months in both July and August 2015 to 3.4 months this August. Nationally, existing homes sold at an annualized pace of 5.33 million in August, down 0.9% from July, but up 0.8% from August 2015, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors. "Healthy labor markets in most the country should be creating a sustained demand for home purchases," said Lawrence Yun, the national association's chief economist. "However, there's no question that after peaking in June, sales in a majority of the country have inched backwards because inventory isn't picking up to tame price growth and replace what's being quickly sold." Nationally, the unsold inventory is at a 4.6-month supply. A six- to seven-month supply is considered normal. The median existing-home price for all housing types in August was $240,200, up 5.1% from August 2015 ($228,500). August's price increase marks the 54th consecutive month of year-over-year gains, the association reported. Distressed sales - foreclosures and short sales - accounted for 5% of August transactions, the lowest percentage since the association began tracking that data in October 2008.

The Builders Index Or Housing Starts was down 1.09M in March vs. 1.17M expected

U.S. housing starts fell more than expected in March. The housing permits applications are also at a year low. This is a US number and not an Antelope Valley number, but is shows a slowing in housing being built. This may be different in the Antelope Valley for the future due to the new Stealth Bomber building plans at Northrop Grumman’s Plant 42. This does show a slow done in the first quarter housing starts for the first half of 2016 nationwide. The overall groundbreaking decreased 8.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.09 million units. This is the lowest level since October according to the Commerce Department. Although, last months housing starts were revised up, but only slightly from 1.19 million from 1.18 million. The largest segment of the housing market is the single family and that dropped almost 10 percent or 9.2 percent. This is the lowest national number since last fall. Again this is a national number and maybe different in Los Angeles County, but it is a reflection of the new housing market for 2016

Antelope Valley is the Silicon Sky

This is a reprint of an article from the AVPress by Jim Keen After suffering more than its fair share of down time, the Antelope Valley is on the upswing and the outlook for its leading industry, aerospace, is bright. In an essay titled "The Unfolding of Silicon Sky," economist Christopher Thornberg notes the Antelope Valley suffered through hard times in the 1990s from defense cutbacks and was hit hard than most areas in the housing market bust of the Great Recession. "The good news is that the Antelope Valley is on an upward swing and clearly recovering from the recession," Thornberg wrote in the essay, which appears in the 2016 Economic Roundtable Report produced by the Greater Antelope Valley Economic Alliance, or GAVEA. Thornberg is the founder of Beacon Economics and has been a frequent visitor to the Antelope Valley. Thornberg says signs of that upswing include home prices that are increasing at a 9% pace, falling unemployment, taxable sales growing at a healthy 5% rate, population growth holding steady at just under 1%, and overall job growth being at just above 2%. "While new construction remains subdued locally, growing unaffordability in the core areas of Los Angeles will undoubtedly create a new surge in local demand over the next few years," Thornberg wrote. The biggest bright spot is aerospace. "This isn't your father's aerospace industry, back when gutsy test pilots and bigger jet engines defined the industry," Thornberg wrote. "Today, it is all about material sciences and advanced computer technology." Thornberg notes some of the industry's recent milestones, including billionaire Paul Allen opting to build a giant airplane in Mojave to launch satellites into space, Northrop Grumman winning the contract to develop America's next bomber, and activity by the Air Force and the Navy in redesigning major weapon systems in the region. "All of these efforts require massive R&D activity and extensive high-tech supply chains - bringing in a new wave of suppliers and sub-contractors. These will be high-tech firms with highly skilled employees and represent an opportunity for the area to become a high-tech hub," Thornberg wrote. The key for the region is to make it as easy as possible for these companies and workers to come to the Antelope Valley, Thornberg said. The region will also need to make sure the area is a place where tech workers would want to live by improving education, expanding entertainment and retail options, and making space for high-end housing, Thornberg said.